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Adeleye, T, Huang, M, Huang, Z and Sun, L (2013) Predicting Loss for Large Construction Companies. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(09), 1224–36.

Alsamadani, R, Hallowell, M R, Javernick-Will, A and Cabello, J (2013) Relationships among Language Proficiency, Communication Patterns, and Safety Performance in Small Work Crews in the United States. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(09), 1125–34.

Cruz, C O and Marques, R C (2013) Exogenous Determinants for Renegotiating Public Infrastructure Concessions: Evidence from Portugal. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(09), 1082–90.

Damci, A, Arditi, D and Polat, G (2013) Multiresource Leveling in Line-of-Balance Scheduling. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(09), 1108–16.

Franz, B W, Leicht, R M and Riley, D R (2013) Project Impacts of Specialty Mechanical Contractor Design Involvement in the Health Care Industry: Comparative Case Study. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(09), 1091–7.

Hanna, A S, Thomas, G and Swanson, J R (2013) Construction Risk Identification and Allocation: Cooperative Approach. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(09), 1098–107.

Hegazy, T, Abdel-Monem, M, Saad, D A and Rashedi, R (2013) Hands-On Exercise for Enhancing Students’ Construction Management Skills. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(09), 1135–43.

Hollar, D A, Rasdorf, W, Liu, M, Hummer, J E, Arocho, I and Hsiang, S M (2013) Preliminary Engineering Cost Estimation Model for Bridge Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(09), 1259–67.

Jafari, A and Love, P E D (2013) Quality Costs in Construction: Case of Qom Monorail Project in Iran. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(09), 1244–9.

Jin, Z, Deng, F, Li, H and Skitmore, M (2013) Practical Framework for Measuring Performance of International Construction Firms. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(09), 1154–67.

Li, J, Chiang, Y H, Choi, T N Y and Man, K F (2013) Determinants of Efficiency of Contractors in Hong Kong and China: Panel Data Model Analysis. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(09), 1211–23.

Liu, J Y, Zou, P X W and Gong, W (2013) Managing Project Risk at the Enterprise Level: Exploratory Case Studies in China. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(09), 1268–74.

Marzouk, M and Amin, A (2013) Predicting Construction Materials Prices Using Fuzzy Logic and Neural Networks. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(09), 1190–8.

Menesi, W, Golzarpoor, B and Hegazy, T (2013) Fast and Near-Optimum Schedule Optimization for Large-Scale Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(09), 1117–24.

Shahandashti, S M and Ashuri, B (2013) Forecasting {[}Engineering News-Record{]} Construction Cost Index Using Multivariate Time Series Models. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(09), 1237–43.

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: Construction costs; Forecasting; Bids; Construction industry; Construction cost; Forecasting; Multivariate time series; Quantitative methods;
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0000689
  • Abstract:
    The construction cost index (CCI), which has been published monthly in the United States by Engineering News-Record (ENR), is subject to significant variations. These variations are problematic for cost estimation, bid preparation, and investment planning. The accurate prediction of CCI can be invaluable for cost estimation and budgeting of capital projects, and can result in accurate bids. The research objective of this paper is to create appropriate multivariate time series models for forecasting CCI based on a group of explanatory variables that are identified by using Granger causality tests. The results of cointegration tests recommend vector error correction (VEC) models as the proper type of multivariate time series models to forecast CCI. Several VEC models are created and compared with existing univariate time series models for forecasting CCI. It is shown that the CCI predicted by these VEC models is more accurate than that predicted by the previously proposed univariate models (i.e., seasonal autoregressive integrated mean-average and Holt-Winters exponential smoothing). The comparisons are based on two typical error measures: mean absolute prediction error and mean squared error. The primary contribution of this research to the body of knowledge is the creation of multivariate time series models that are more accurate than the current univariate time series models for forecasting CCI. It is expected that this work will contribute to the construction engineering and management community by helping cost engineers and capital planners prepare more accurate bids, cost estimates, and budgets for capital projects.

Sunindijo, R Y and Zou, P X W (2013) Conceptualizing Safety Management in Construction Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(09), 1144–53.

Tas, E, Cakmak, P I and Levent, H (2013) Determination of Behaviors in Building Product Information Acquisition for Developing a Building Product Information System in Turkey. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(09), 1250–8.

Wang, S, Tang, W and Li, Y (2013) Relationship between Owners’ Capabilities and Project Performance on Development of Hydropower Projects in China. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(09), 1168–78.

Xie, J and Thomas Ng, S (2013) Multiobjective Bayesian Network Model for Public-Private Partnership Decision Support. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(09), 1069–81.

Yorucu, V (2013) Construction in an Open Economy: Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modeling Approach and Causality Analysis—Case of North Cyprus. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(09), 1199–210.

Zhao, X, Hwang, B and Low, S P (2013) Developing Fuzzy Enterprise Risk Management Maturity Model for Construction Firms. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 139(09), 1179–89.